Saturday May 19 , 2012

Posts Tagged ‘Hulu’

Hulu Missed Its Window for Subscription Success

Ed Note:  VideoNuze is an RSS feed to this site for a reason.  Will Richmond is an expert in the online video community whom I have tremendous respect for.  His articles are both news and opinion and more often than not, I agree with his opinion.   In this case, I disagree with the premise that Hulu has missed the Window.   That said, I think everything else about the article is spot on.

Hulu Missed Its Window for Subscription Success


Friday, April 23, 2010, 10:39 AM ET
posted by: Will Richmond

Unless Hulu has something very unpredictable up its sleeve in the $9.95/mo subscription service it’s rumored to begin testing in May, the bad news for the site is that it has already missed its window of opportunity for subscription success. In a one sense it’s not Hulu’s fault; as a startup 3 years ago, it had to choose what strategy to focus on and execute. Hulu chose the free, ad-supported route, with widespread distribution that has made it the 2nd most-used video site.

The problem is that the world has changed significantly since Hulu was started 3 years ago, and launching a successful online subscription service now is far harder to do now than it would have been then. Here are some of the top reasons why:

Subscription competition - 3 years the online video subscription field was wide open, but now there’s Netflix to contend with. As the company’s blowout Q1 ’10 results amply demonstrate, Netflix is firing on all cylinders.  By providing unlimited streaming as a value add even for its $8.99/mo subs, Netflix has muddied the waters for any would-be online-only subscription competitor, which has to articulate a value prop to prospects of why they should pay the same or more for online-only access, for what will likely be a smaller catalog initially. Netflix also has the device partnerships, 28-day studio deals for more content, well-baked UI/recommendations and deep financial resources. 3 years ago it had none of this; back then it was still imposing confusing online usage caps and pursuing itsown set-top box with LG Electronics.

TV Everywhere - 3 years ago cable operators were contemplating their navels when it came to online video delivery, now with TV Everywhere they have a game plan (though admittedly not a lot of actual success just yet). For most cable networks, preserving their relationships in the cable ecosystem is paramount. Taking a leap by licensing content for a Hulu subscription service isn’t going to be very appealing. Absent cable content, Hulu will be pitching a monthly subscription to archived commercial free broadcast network programs; that’s a pretty narrow value prop.

Comcast-NBCU deal - 3 years ago Comcast was still licking its wounds from its ill-considered bid for Disney; now it has a deal to acquire NBCU, one of Hulu’s original partners and a top-tier cable network owner. While Comcast will say all the right things during the deal’s review process, I’ve wondered how long Comcast would even retain its Hulu stake once the deal is completed. Hulu’s free “ad-lite” model is antithetical to Comcast’s belief in subscriptions and bottom line accountability. A Hulu subscription service is unlikely to help either. Why would Comcast want another competing subscription offer in the market, much less one that would tempt would-be “cord-cutters?”

Lack of ownership will - 3 years ago, NBCU and News Corp were full of platitudes about their new online video baby. But in addition to NBCU’s changed status, News Corp has become the most vocal content provider for the paid online content model. MySpace’s travails are rumored to have soured Rupert Murdoch’s appetite for chasing fickle online users. Meanwhile, Disney, the last partner to the Hulu venture, is plenty interested in subscriptions, but it wants to offer them directly. Then there’s Hulu’s key financial partner, Providence Equity Partners. I’ve never quite understood their investment decision given Hulu’s limited exit opportunities, but one thing’s for sure – they’re unlikely to be motivated to help fund the considerable development and marketing expenses Hulu must undertake to make subscriptions succeed.

Retransmission consent - 3 years ago, the idea of broadcasters getting paid for their content still seemed like a stretch. But broadcasters are winning their chosen high-stakes battles, and given their success, are far more inclined to pursue a wholesale model (i.e. getting distributors to pay them monthly) than back a retail, subscription model. Plus, a Hulu subscription model departs from the message of free broadcast service that the broadcast lobby is using with the FCC and Congress to justify why it should retain its excess spectrum, rather than yielding it to mobile data providers under the National Broadband Plan’s reclamation program.

User expectations - As if these weren’t enough to contend with, the single biggest impediment Hulu faces is likely itself. Having invested its brand heavily in the free ad-supported positioning (and computer-based viewing only) Hulu lacks what experts would call “brand permission” to now pursue subscriptions. Companies are frequently chastened to find out what their customers really think when stretching for new products or business models. Moving customers from free to paid is one of the hardest things any company can do (just ask YouTube which is attempting to do the same); trying to pull it off from a cold start is nearly impossible in my mind. Hindsight is 20-20, but what Hulu probably should have done 3 years ago is offered a “freemium” model that would have immediately conditioned its users to thinking Hulu stands for both free and paid.

I’ve learned to never say never in this business, but to succeed, Hulu has to surmount the above challenges and more. If it can do so, it will be a significant win for the company. If it can’t it will be yet another reminder of how treacherous things are even for well-funded startups trying to navigate a quickly-shifting competitive landscape.

 

Hulu on the iPad?

Hulu on the iPad? Not as Easy as it Sounds

Written by Sarah Perez / March 10, 2010 9:04 AM / 7 Comments
« Prior PostNext Post »  Posted from ReadWrite Web

In a recent interview, Hulu CEO Jason Kilar told technology reporter Om Malik that his company was “very bullish” on mobile, even going so far as to say “we will embrace every device.” That’s a funny statement, considering that the company has been touting that same sentiment for years but has yet to launch anything for mobile, be it an app or simply a mobile-ready streaming site.

Now, with the launch of the iPad just around the corner, the rumors of an iPhone/iPad Hulu app are rising up again. But there’s a bigger mobile web than just the one accessible via Apple products, and that may be what Hulu has its eye on now. “We don’t think about one device only,” Kilar said.

However, going mobile is going to be a challenge for Hulu. And it’s not as simple as re-encoding a few videos, no matter what you may have heard.

Problem A: Hulu’s Business Model Needs Work

The fact that Hulu exists at all is somewhat of an amazement. Through tenuous connections with major studios, the collaborative, experimental effort to bring streaming TV to web (and make it profitable) has managed to attract a number of users in the U.S. Although the audience size varies widely depending on who’s counting, the company has managed to become a household name thanks to eye-catching commercials on NBC featuring actors from the network’s top shows.

But there’s a problem facing Hulu: in-video advertising is, apparently, not as profitable as once hoped. In fact, it’s just too expensive, says Marc Ruxin, the Chief Innovation Officer for ad agency network McCann Worldgroup. Hulu has been aware of this problem, though, and has been hinting towards the launch of a subscription service, with News Corp. chairman Rupert Murdoch telling an investor conference last fall that the company, was looking at “adding subscription services and pay per view” options. Through the subscription model, Hulu could potentially generate enough revenue to keep the studios happy and maybe even encourage them to offer up more programming.

Unfortunately, the subscription model has yet to launch and the profits from video ads have been far too lean for some Hulu participants. Recently, for example, Viacom pulled two of the top shows – The Daily Show and the Colbert Report – from the site, claiming that they simply weren’t earning enough money via the advertising model currently in place. Viacom Inc. Chief Executive Officer Philippe Dauman said that “on the current economic model for Hulu, there’s just not much in it for us to continue at this time.”

And so the situation degrades.

So what is Hulu doing now? It’s trying to attract more viewers to its site with the launch of “If I Can Dream,” an original series that premiered earlier this month. The fact that they’re now making the foray into this sort of online programming is somewhat worrying. After all, if hit video webisodes alone made for a profitable service, then YouTube would have achieved profitability ages ago, instead of (maybe) getting there this year, five years post-launch. Let’s face it, original programming is a bonus for Hulu users, but it’s not going to take the place of hot shows like the now-departed Comedy Central fare.

Problem B: Will Apple Allow a Hulu App on the iPhone/iPad?

Another problem? Hulu has been planning to delay its iPhone app launch until a subscription model was in place, according to earlier reports. But with the biggest names pulling out, subscriptions could be a harder sell. Still, even if Hulu was able to make subscriptions happen, there are no guarantees that Apple would ever allow them into the iTunes store, especially considering they’re offering a competing product. (See: Google Voice banishment from the iPhone, for example).

Meanwhile, Hulu’s online site doesn’t work in the iPhone’s web browser because it was built in Flash. If Apple rejects the Hulu app from iTunes, the company’s other option is encoding all their site’s content in H.264 and make that available via HTML5, the new web language that offers streaming video sans plugin. Since this has already been done, a Hulu app could launch a player on the iPhone or iPad, if, of course, Apple allowed them to do so. If not, then a mobile site would have to be built in HTML5 – video controls, overall UI, advertisements and all. That’s no simple process.

What’s Hulu Doing Now?

So is this the plan Hulu has decided on now? It’s hard to know for sure. Like Apple, the company is incredibly secretive about their plans and product roadmap, often refusing to respond to calls and emails entirely, even to say “no comment.”

And yet, the Hulu iPhone app exists. We’ve spoken to someone who’s seen it…but that was ages ago. For all we know, iPhone/iPad app plans have since been scrapped to work on a new solution that works around any potential Apple restrictions. But sources inside Hulu have clammed up lately, meaning they’re either building something top, top secret…or perhaps nothing at all.

We hope it’s the former, because frankly, an iPad without Hulu is a sad, sad affair. But will we ever see a real app? At this point, we’re not holding our breath.

1 Comment

  1. The above post from ReadWrite Web is spot on and it points to the short sightedness of Apple in not supporting Flash. A primary issue with HTML5, is the support for advertising. In addition, significant behavioral data is collected by instrumenting the Flash player. Much of this is difficult if not impossible to do in HTML5.

    In my opinion, iPad will drive significant market share without Flash. If the installed base numbers are solid, Hulu will figure out a way to support it, and so will other media properties dependent on Flash today.

    What are your thoughts?

 

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